为了准确判断施工现场在突降暴雨情况下的安全状态,采用贝叶斯最优最劣法(Bayesian Best Worst Method,BBWM)和云模型方法,提出暴雨灾害下的建筑施工现场风险评价模型,以确定施工现场在遭受暴雨灾害时的风险等级。该模型利用了压力状态响应模型(Pressure State Response,PSR)和灾害系统理论,在考虑致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境稳定性、承灾体脆弱性和减灾能力抵御性4方面的基础上,构建18个风险因素的施工现场风险评价指标体系,并以武汉市某施工现场为例进行验证。结果显示,施工现场的减灾能力抵御性处于最重要的地位,做好现场减灾应对措施对灾害有非常重要的帮助;案例项目的评价结果处于一般风险状态,与现场实际情况相符。
An extreme rainfall event occurred over Hangzhou,China,during the afternoon hours on 24 June 2013.This event occurred under suitable synoptic conditions and the maximum 4-h cumulative rainfall amount was over 150 mm.This rainfall event had two major rainbands.One was caused by a quasi-stationary convective line,and the other by a backbuilding convective line related to the interaction of the outflow boundary from the first rainband and an existing low-level mesoscale convergence line associated with a mei-yu frontal system.The rainfall event lasted 4 h,while the back-building process occurred in 2 h when the extreme rainfall center formed.So far,few studies have examined the back-building processes in the mei-yu season that are caused by the interaction of a mesoscale convergence line and a convective cold pool.The two rainbands are successfully reproduced by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with fourlevel,two-way interactive nesting.In the model,new cells repeatedly occur at the west side of older cells,and the backbuilding process occurs in an environment with large CAPE,a low LFC,and plenty of water vapor.Outflows from older cells enhance the low-level convergence that forces new cells.High precipitation efficiency of the back-building training cells leads to accumulated precipitation of over 150 mm.Sensitivity experiments without evaporation of rainwater show that the convective cold pool plays an important role in the organization of the back-building process in the current extreme precipitation case.
An extreme torrential rain(ETR)event occurred in Henan Province,China,during 18-21 July 2021.Based on hourly rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,the ETR was studied from the perspective of kinetic energy(K),which can be divided into rotational wind(V_(R))kinetic energy(K_(R)),divergent wind kinetic energy(K_(D)),and the kinetic energy of the interaction between the divergent and rotational winds(K_(RD)).According to the hourly precipitation intensity variability,the ETR process was divided into an initial stage,a rapid increase stage,and maintenance stage.Results showed that the intensification and maintenance of ETR were closely related to the upper-level K,and most closely related to the upperlevel K_(R),with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.9.In particular,the peak value of hourly rainfall intensity lagged behind the K_(R) by 8 h.Furthermore,diagnosis showed that K transformation from unresolvable to resolvable scales made the ETR increase slowly.The meridional rotational wind(u_(R))and meridional gradient of the geopotential(φ)jointly determined the conversion of available potential energy(APE)to K_(R) through the barotropic process,which dominated the rapid enhancement of K_(R) and then caused the rapid increase in ETR.The transportation of K by rotational wind consumed K_(R),and basically offset the K_(R) produced by the barotropic process,which basically kept K_(R) stable at a high value,thus maintaining the ETR.
