Based on hourly rainfall observational data from 442 stations during 1960-2014, a regional frequency analysis of the annual maxima （AM） sub-daily rainfall series （1-, 2-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h rainfall, using a moving window approach） for eastern China was conducted. Eastern China was divided into 13 homogeneous regions： Northeast （NE1, NE2）, Central （C）, Central North （CN1, CN2）, Central East （CE1, CE2, CE3）, Southeast （SE1, SE2, SE3, SE4）, and Southwest （SW）. The generalized extreme value performed best for the AM series in regions NE, C, CN2, CE1, CE2, SE2, and SW, and the generalized logistic distribution was appropriate in the other regions. Maximum return levels were in the SE4 region, with value ranges of 80-270 mm （1-h to 24-h rainfall） and 108-390 mm （1-h to 24-h rainfall） for 20- and 100 yr, respectively. Minimum return levels were in the CN1 and NE1 regions, with values of 37-104 mm and 53-140 mm for 20 and 100 yr, respectively. Comparing return levels using the optimal and commonly used Pearson-III distribution, the mean return-level differences in eastern China for 1-24-h rainfall varied from -3-4 mm to -23-11 mm （- 10%-10%） for 20-yr events, reaching -6-26 mm （-10%-30%） and -10-133 mm （-10%-90%） for 100-yr events. In view of the large differences in estimated return levels, more attention should be given to frequency analysis of sub-daily rainfall over China, for improved water management and disaster reduction.
利用高分辨率区域气候模式CCLM(COSMO Model in Climate Mode)对云南省气温和降水的模拟资料,采用多种评价指标,对比分析了试验期(1961~2005年)的模拟结果与同期25个气象站的观测值,并对RCP4.5情景下的近期(2030~2040年)气温可能变化趋势进行了预估。结果表明:(1)CCLM区域气候模式能够较好地模拟云南省气温的演变趋势,而对降水的模拟能力相对较弱;(2)RCP4.5情景下,年平均气温(T)、最高气温(Tmax)和最低气温(Tmi n)将呈现一致上升趋势,2030~2040年比基准期1986~2005年上升幅度均为1.2℃;(3)2030~2040年,云南省暖事件发生的可能性将增加,冷事件可能有所减少。
