首先介绍简单生物圈模式版本3(Simple Biosphere Model 3,SiB3)相比SiB2的改进之处以及相应的参数化方案。为了检验SiB3模式能否模拟不同下垫面的地气之间水分和能量交换,本文在全球选择3个代表高、中、低纬度的典型实验站点(青藏高原安多站点、亚马逊流域的Km34站点和美国中西部的WLEF站点),利用SiB3进行模拟分析和实验验证。研究结果表明,SiB3能够较好地模拟出不同下垫面的地表感热通量、潜热通量和净辐射通量随时间的变化率以及变化趋势,模式模拟值和测量值的相关系数达到0.80左右。但与实测相比,SiB3模拟的感热通量值仍偏高。在安多站点,模式模拟的地表土壤水分比较干燥,且模拟的地表温度较测量值偏高。
Using 1958-2002 NCEPNCAR reanalysis data, we investigate stationary and transient planetary wave propagation and its role in wave-mean flow interaction which influences the state of the polar vortex （PV） in the stratosphere in Northern Hemisphere （NH） winter. This is done by analyzing the Eliassen-Palm （E-P） flux and its divergence. We find that the stationary and transient waves propagate upward and equatorward in NH winter, with stronger upward propagation of stationary waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere, and stronger equatorward propagation of transient waves from mid-latitudes to the subtropics in the troposphere. Stationary waves exhibit more upward propagation in the polar stratosphere during the weak polar vortex regime （WVR） than during the strong polar vortex regime （SVR）. On the other hand, transient waves have more upward propagation during SVR than during WVR in the subpolar stratosphere, with a domain of low frequency waves. With different paths of upward propagation, both stationary and transient waves contribute to the maintenance of the observed stratospheric PV regimes in NH winter.
Using observed daily precipitation data to classify five levels of rainy days by strength in South China （SC）,with an emphasis on the Pearl River Delta （PRD） region,the spatiotemporal variation of different grades of precipitation during the period 1960-2010 was analyzed and the possible link with anthropogenic aerosols examined.Statistical analysis showed that drizzle and small precipitation has significantly decreased,whereas medium to heavy precipitation has increased slightly over the past 50 years （although not statistically significant）.Further data analysis suggested that the decline in drizzle and small precipitation probably has a strong link to increased concentrations of anthropogenic aerosols produced by large-scale human activities related to the rapid socioeconomic development of the PRD region.These aerosols may also have led to the obvious decreasing trend in horizontal visibility and sunshine duration in SC,which is statistically significant according to the t-test.
A statistical regression downscaling method was used to project future changes in precipitation over eastern China based on Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) scenarios simulated by the second spectral version of the Flexible Global OceanAtmosphere-Land System(FGOALS-s2) model. Our validation results show that the downscaled time series agree well with the present observed precipitation in terms of both the annual mean and the seasonal cycle. The regression models built from the historical data are then used to generate future projections. The results show that the enhanced land-sea thermal contrast strengthens both the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific and the east Asian summer monsoon flow under both RCPs. However, the trend of precipitation in response to warming over the 21 st century are different across eastern China under different RCPs. The area to the north of 32°N is likely to experience an increase in annual mean precipitation, while for the area between 23°N and 32°N mean precipitation is projected to decrease slightly over this century under RCP8.5. The change difference between scenarios mainly exists in the middle and late century. The land-sea thermal contrast and the associated east Asian summer monsoon flow are stronger, such that precipitation increases more, at higher latitudes under RCP8.5 compared to under RCP4.5. For the region south of 32°N, rainfall is projected to increase slightly under RCP4.5 but decrease under RCP8.5 in the late century. At the high resolution of 5 km, our statistically downscaled results for projected precipitation can be used to force hydrological models to project hydrological processes, which will be of great benefit to regional water planning and management.
