Based on the remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) analysis of the Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) and thematic mapper (TM) satellite images of 1983, 1993, and 2005, the present research examined the effectiveness of the urban construction boundaries (UCBs) in containing urban growth within the 6th Ring Road of Beijing Municipality. Three indicators on boundary control were proposed, through which the effectiveness of boundary containment, land inventory sufficiency and illegal adjacent development to the UCBs were explored. The results suggested that, first, the UCBs were limited in effectiveness in containing urban growth; second, the area encompassed by the UCBs might not be designed large enough to accommodate new development. The frustration of the urban growth control through the UCBs mainly resulted from the lack of a transparent system for urban land use planning and control to provide sufficient information, the limitation of the traditional land use prediction method to consider contingencies, and the absence of a mechanism to monitor and adjust the UCBs to respond just in time to urban change.
Urban growth analysis and simulation have been recently conducted by cellular automata （CA） models based on self-organizing theory which differs from system dynamics models. This paper describes the Beijing urban development model （BUDEM） which adopts the CA approach to support urban planning and policy evaluation. BUDEM, as a spatio-temporal dynamic model for simulating urban growth in the Beijing metropolitan area, is based on the urban growth theory and integrates logistic regression and MonoLoop to obtain the weights for the transition rule with multi-criteria evaluation configuration. Local sensitivity analysis for all the parameters of BUDEM is also carried out to assess the model＇s performances. The model is used to identify urban growth mechanisms in the various historical phases since 1986, to retrieve urban growth policies needed to implement the desired （planned） urban form in 2020, and to simulate urban growth scenarios until 2049 based on the urban form and parameter set in 2020. The model has been proved to be capable of analyzing historical urban growth mechanisms and predicting future urban growth for metropolitan areas in China.
