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国家自然科学基金(40571007)

作品数:3 被引量:37H指数:2
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基于非集计模型的统计生命价值分析被引量:5
2008年
统计生命价值是进行交通项目成本效益分析的重要参数。首先分析比较统计生命价值的不同计算方法,然后在理论上论证使用非集计模型来导出统计生命价值的可行性,最后运用正交试验法设计交通意愿调查问卷,为今后进一步收集数据、建立路径选择模型、计算统计生命价值奠定基础。
赵胜川张羽祥
关键词:意愿调查路径选择模型正交试验法非集计模型
Land use changes and their relations with carbon cycles over the past 300 a in China被引量:30
2008年
Land use and land cover in China have changed greatly during the past 300 a, indicated by the rapid abrupt decrease of forest land area and the rapid increase of cropland area, which can affect terrestrial carbon cycle greatly. The first-hand materials are used to analyze main characteristics for land use and land cover changes in China during the study period. The following conclusions can be drawn from this study. The cropland area in China kept increasing from 60.78×106 hm2 in 1661 to 96.09×106 hm2 in 1998. Correspondingly, the forest land area decreased from 248.13×106 hm2 in 1700 to 109.01×106 hm2 in 1949. Affected by such changes, the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage decreased in the mean time. Car-bon lost from land use and land cover changes mainly consist of the loss from vegetation biomass and soil. In the past 300 a, about 3.70 PgC was lost from vegetation biomass, and emissions from soil ranged from 0.80 to 5.84 PgC. The moderate evaluation of soil losses was 2.48 PgC. The total loss from vegetation and soil was between 4.50 and 9.54 PgC. The moderate and optimum evaluation was 6.18 PgC. Such carbon losses distribution varied spatially from region to region. Carbon lost more significantly in Northeast China and Southwest China than in other regions, because losses of forest land in these two regions were far greater than in the other regions during the past 300 a. And losses of carbon in the other regions were also definite, such as Inner Mongolia, the western part of South China, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. But the carbon lost very little from the traditional agricultural regions in China, such as North China and East China. Studies on the relationship between land use and land cover change and carbon cycle in China show that the land use activities, especially those related to agriculture and forest management, began to affect terrestrial carbon storage positively in recent years.
GE QuanShengDAI JunHuHE FanNengPAN YuanWANG MengMai
关键词:PASTLANDLANDCOVERCHANGECYCLE
基于Monte Carlo模拟的Mixed Logit模型求解研究被引量:2
2009年
Mixed Logit模型因能有效地避免其他离散选择模型的限制而被广泛地运用于交通领域,但由于它概率形式的非封闭性而导致了复杂的求解过程。从理论上证明利用Monte Carlo模拟方法求解Mixed Logit模型具有一定的合理性,并给出具体的求解步骤,可有效简化Mixed Logit模型的求解过程。
张羽祥赵胜川
关键词:MIXEDLOGIT模型MONTECARLO模拟
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