全球有限区通用数值预报模式是21世纪数值预报模式的发展趋势,为此"十五"期间中国气象局发展了一个GRAPES(global/regional assimilation and prediction system)全球有限区多尺度非静力数值预报模式.为了验证GRAPES模式方案设计的科学性、程序编写的正确性,针对模式的特点设计了一套完整的理想试验方案来对GRAPES动力模式的性能进行检验,包括用于检验中尺度模式的密度流和三维地形波试验;用于检验近极地半拉格朗日上游点和极区离散方案正确性的越极地气流试验等.密度流试验显示模式框架对精细尺度的非线性流及其瞬变特征有较强的模拟能力;三维地形波试验说明GRAPES模式动力框架能够较好地模拟气流过山时重力内波的水平与垂直传播.而越极地气流试验验证了模式对极地半拉格朗日上游点及近极地的离散处理是正确的.实际个例试验表明,GRAPES全球模式对影响中国夏季的大尺度环流形势有较好的预报能力.
The variations of global atmospheric oscillations over the last millennium, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) highly associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Southern Oscillation (SO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), are studied and compared in this paper based on observations and reconstructed data. The cross correlation analysis of AAO, NAO and NPO shows that there is no significant relationship on interannual variation among them. However, the consistency on decadal variability is prominent. During A.D.1920–1940 and A.D.1980–2000, the positive (strong) phase was dominant and the negative (weak) one noticeable during A.D.1940–1980. In addition, the reconstructed atmospheric oscillations series demonstrate that the positive phase existed in the early of the last millennium for NAO and in the late of the last millennium for AAO, respectively; while it occurred in the mid-late of the last millennium for PDO and ENSO.
