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孙俊

作品数:7 被引量:50H指数:2
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气候条件对马铃薯产量的影响及产量预报模型研究被引量:36
2010年
[目的]研究气候条件对马铃薯产量的影响,并建立产量预报模型。[方法]用SPSS将历年马铃薯产量资料分离成气候产量和趋势产量,并对气候产量与气象因素进行相关性分析。[结果]影响马铃薯产量的气象因素分为普遍性和区域性。普遍性因素包括上年秋季8~9月的水汽压或相对湿度、当年6月下旬~7月上旬及8月中旬降水量;区域性因素有当年1月降水量、4月上旬至中旬的降水量、5月水汽压。用逐步回归建立产量预报模型,拟合率较好。[结论]该方法计算简单、预测时效长、预测准确率较高,为做好马铃薯种植业气象服务提供了保障。
孙俊李剑萍吴志歧杨美兰罗京云魏广涣
关键词:马铃薯产量气象条件
气候变化与宁夏西吉马铃薯种植农业气候区划被引量:12
2009年
基于气象资料揭示了近10年来地处西北东部的宁夏南部山区西吉县在气候变暖背景下年平均气温升高了1.0℃,≥10℃平均有效积温增加了128.1℃,年降水量减少了45.1mm,年降水变率过去50年由8%增大到51%;基于天气图法对西吉县内各大山脉等高线分布特征进行分析,结果表明,西吉县各大山脉等高线与年平均气温、≥10℃有效积温都有东西向分布的规律,中西部的高度槽和干旱、半干旱气候分界线十分接近,中东部的高度脊和半干旱、半湿润气候分界线十分接近,高度槽脊落后于年平均气温、≥10℃有效积温槽脊,马铃薯生育关键期7~8月150、180him雨量分布线和槽脊线十分接近。根据马铃薯种植对气象条件的要求,用2000、2100、2200、2300m等高线、≥10℃有效积温和马铃薯生育期7~8月150、180mm雨量线作指标对西吉马铃薯种植进行区划,将西吉县划分为5个不同类型的马铃薯种植区,这一工作对今后科学安排马铃薯生产具有较高的参考价值。
孙俊李剑萍
关键词:气候变化马铃薯农业气候区划
Influence of Climate Conditions on Potato Yield and Studies on the Forecasting Model of Potato Yield
2010年
[Objective]The aim was to research influence of climate conditions on potato yield and establish the forecasting model of potato yield.[Method]SPSS(Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) was used to separate potato output into meteorological yield and tendency yield over the years,and analysis of the relation between potato climate yield and meteorological factors was carried out.[Result]The result showed that affecting yield factor consisted of the universality and regional.The universality included vapour pressure or relative humidity of air in last August-September,precipitation in late June to early July and in mid-August;The regional is including precipitation in January and in early to mid April,vapour pressure of air in May.Prediction model about yield was established by using stepwise regression method,which qualified rates of fitting better quality.[Conclusion]Because of its long effective period,high accuracy and simplicity to dalculate,the method provided a guarantee for weather service on the crop farming of potatoes.
孙俊李剑萍
Analysis of Drought Changes and Drought Mitigation in Xiji County of Ningxia
2011年
[Objective] The aim was to study the characteristics of the changes of extreme weather climate incidents such as severe drought in northwest and rainstorm in Xiji County of Ningxia. [Method] Precipitation anomaly percentage was applied to divide drought level and for statistics analysis. Seasonal index, linear tendency, and 5-years gliding average were used to reflect the trend of drought changes. The circulation wave of temporal sequence used polynomial expression to simulate the interannual variation scale. The positive part of the polynomial expression used bar chart to simulate interannual variation scale. [Result] The index of drought season from November to June was large. The general trend of annual drought was increasing. The drought of interannual scale was most serious around 1977, about 15 and 20 years. The drought in recent years went up. The general situation of drought, interannual scale and changes of interannual scales from March to May and from September to October were discussed. Based on the weather at 500 hPa, the first rain in Xiji and the drought-turning-into-rain situation were classified. [Conclusion]These may provide reference value to the prevention and mitigation of drought.
孙俊张学艺李剑萍齐旭峰魏广泱
宁夏西吉干旱变化规律及旱情缓解天气形势分析被引量:1
2011年
[目的]分析研究西北地区历次特大干旱的开端-宁夏西吉县干旱暴雨等极端天气气候事件的变化规律。[方法]用降水距平百分率划分干旱等级并进行统计分析;用季节指数、线形趋势、5年滑动反映干旱变化趋势;时间序列的循环波动用多项式模拟年代际尺度变化,多项式分解的正数部分用柱形图模拟年际尺度变化。[结果]11~6月干旱季节指数大且波动变化;年干旱的总变化趋势呈上升,年代际尺度的干旱以1977年前后最为严重,有约15年、20年的周期,年际尺度的干旱近年急剧上升;对3~5月、9~11月干旱的总趋势、年代际尺度、年际尺度的变化进行了分析讨论。从500 hPa高空天气图上对西吉第一场透雨、久旱转雨天气形势进行了归类分型。[结论]这些工作对开展干旱防灾减灾具有重要的参考价值。
孙俊张学艺李剑萍齐旭峰魏广泱
葫芦河流域百公里西芹产业带气候条件聚类分析被引量:2
2012年
应用宁夏西吉县国家基本站1981~2010年气候资料,对葫芦河流域3个区域自动气象站近年作物生长期气象资料进行回归分析后,对西芹产业带气候条件用SPSS进行分层聚类分析。结果表明,葫芦河流域西芹产业带划分为2个种植区:偏南部兴隆-硝河暖热多雨早熟区、偏北部吉强-新营温冷少雨晚熟区,4个亚区:兴隆暖热早产、硝河暖温偏早产、吉强冷温中产、新营冷凉晚产;每个种植亚区按气候层次结合生育期观测再聚类划分为积温播种期、低温出苗期、外叶适温生长期、心叶高温生长期、适时收获期5个不同阶段。这些工作,对市场经济条件下西芹覆膜压沙种植采取不同播期、水肥方案、病虫害防治、上市时间等具有参考价值。
孙俊苏存录魏广泱齐旭峰
关键词:气候条件聚类分析
Climatic Conditions of Regional Distribution of Characteristic Agriculture——With West Celery Industrial Belt in Huluhe Basin as an Example
2012年
[Objective] The paper was to study the climate conditions of celery indus- trial belt in Huluhe Basin. [Method] Using the climate data of Xiji national basic sta- tion during 1981 and 2010, the meteorological data during crop growth period in 3 automatic weather stations along Huluhe Basin were carried out regression analysis, and the climate condition of west celery industrial belt was conducted hierarchical clustering analysis by SPSS. [Result] West celery industrial belt along Huluhe Basin could be divided into 2 growing regions: partially southern warm, rainy and early mature region, partially northern cold, rainless and late mature region. Years of practice proved that the small climate differences within 2 planting regions were more obvious, so these 2 planting regions could be further divided into 4 subre- glens: Xinglong warm, rainy and early mature subregion, Xiaohe thermal, rainy and partially early mature region, Jiqiang cool, rainless and middle mature subregion and Xinying cold, rainless and late mature subregion. [Conclusion] The study has refer- ence value for determination of different sowing time, different fertilizer and irrigation scheme, pests and diseased control and marketing time of west celery under mulch- sanded bunch plantation in market economic condition.
孙俊
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