Sensitivity evaluation of rocky desertification is to recognize the areas prone to be rock-deserted,so as to assess the sensitivity degree of rocky desertification to human activities.To perform the sensitivity evaluation of rocky desertification,we should be on the basis of the mechanism of rocky desertification formation for analyzing its regional distribution difference in the sensitivity and further for finding out the rocky desertification-susceptive areas and their possible degrees.Employing remote sensing and geological information system techniques,we regarded the 1∶ 50 000 topographic map and the TM image in 2000 of Guizhou Province,together with the hydrologic map,soil map,geologic map,rock formation map,administrative map and other geological information as data sources to generate the degree data of rocky desertification sensitivity of Guizhou Province in 1962 and 2000,based on which we determined the corresponding degree transfer matrix and adopted Markov model to simulate the dynamic change process of rocky desertification sensitivity and its future evolution trend.In various sensitivity types of rocky desertification in Guizhou Province,only the insensitive type showed a declined acreage,from the proportion of total land acreage of 61.35% in 1962 to 55.55% in 2000.Various sensitivity types inter-conversed,resultantly the acreage of mildly sensitive type increased most.The prediction results showed that the acreage of insensitive type of rocky desertification in Guizhou Province will assume a remarkable decline trend,of mildly sensitive type will present a remarkably increasing trend and of slightly sensitive type basically will maintain a stable level in the future tens of years.Acreages of both highly sensitive and extremely sensitive type of rocky desertification expanded to some extent,suggesting that the rocky desertification risk in Guizhou Province is in an aggravating process.
